Authored by Andrew Korybko, Russia is once again expected to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and long-term survival through the coordinated efforts of its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society sectors.
Russia’s special military campaign against NATO-supported Ukraine has now entered its fifth year. Reflections on the previous three anniversaries can be found here, here, and here, and continuing that tradition, this article reviews the major developments of the past year while looking ahead to what the next might bring.At present, Russia faces five major geostrategic challenges that are likely to influence both its stance in US-mediated peace negotiations with Ukraine and its broader grand strategy:* NATO’s Reach Could Expand Across Russia’s Southern FlankLast August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), stretching through Armenia’s southern Syunik Province, is designed to function as a NATO-linked military and logistics corridor connecting the South Caucasus to Central Asia. Led by NATO member Turkiye and supported by Azerbaijan as a Caspian gateway, TRIPP could significantly undermine Russia’s regional security environment if left unchecked. The initiative may even encourage Kazakhstan to adopt a trajectory similar to Ukraine’s.* Washington Is Backing Poland’s Return As A Major Power“September 2025 Was The Most Eventful Month For Poland Since The End Of Communism,” for the 18 reasons detailed in the referenced analysis. These developments position Poland at the heart of the US National Security Strategy aimed at containing Russia once the Ukraine conflict concludes. Poland already fields the European Union’s largest army, occupies a strategic position along critical military-logistics routes, and is openly ambitious about restoring its former Great Power stature—along with reviving its historic rivalry with Russia.* The EU Is Rapidly Expanding Its Military Capabilities And InfrastructureGermany, widely regarded as the EU’s de facto leader, is vying with Poland to spearhead efforts to contain Russia, bolstered by nearly $100 billion in defense procurement approved last year alone. More broadly, the EU is accelerating its militarization through the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan.” Adding to Moscow’s concerns, the so-called “military Schengen” initiative—designed to streamline troop and equipment movements toward Russia’s borders—continues to advance, with the Baltic States newly pledging participation.* India Appears To Be Recalibrating Its Strategy In A US-Friendly DirectionFollowing its recent trade agreement with Washington, India has begun aligning more closely with certain US interests. As previously analyzed, this shift could deprive Russia of tens of billions of dollars in revenue if India reduces its imports of Russian oil as the US claims was agreed upon. India may also reconsider major future defense acquisitions from Russia. Such a recalibration could increase pressure on Moscow’s key partner, China, thereby reshaping the broader Asian geopolitical landscape.* Poland’s Nuclear Ambitions And Turkiye’s Potential Move In The Same DirectionThe US decision to allow the New START treaty to lapse has heightened the risk of a renewed global nuclear arms race. Poland has openly signaled interest in acquiring nuclear capabilities, while reports suggest Turkiye may contemplate a similar path. Given that both nations have longstanding rivalries with Russia—and ambitions to establish spheres of influence in Central & Eastern Europe and Central Asia, respectively—their pursuit of nuclear weapons would represent a significant strategic threat and intensify efforts to contain Russia.Although these five challenges confronting Russia in the fifth year of its special operation are serious, they are not insurmountable. As throughout its history, Russia is expected to defend its sovereignty and security through the integrated efforts of its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society institutions. Moscow may ultimately seek an agreement with the United States over Ukraine to better concentrate on these broader strategic pressures—but not at any price, which explains why such a deal has yet to materialize.